UNC Football: Ceiling for 2018 Season

There’s no sugarcoating that 2017 was a disappointing year for the Tar Heel Football team. After finishing 2016 with an 8-5 record they lost six players to the NFL draft, including star quarterback Mitch Trubisky. That is a lot of talent to replace in one season, and while UNC has had consistently good recruiting classes the last few years, the combination of the loss of talent and some losses that could have gone either way, the Tar Heels limped to a 3-9 record, including 1-7 in ACC play.

           

After missing a bowl game for the first time in his UNC tenure, Larry Fedora is obviously looking for a bounce back season. Quarterback Chazz Surratt has had a whole offseason to prepare as the presumed starter, which makes a huge difference going into the season. Last year there was competition between Surratt and LSU transfer Brandon Harris. Surratt is also going to have a ton of weapons to utilize around him on offense. The defense returns a lot and has a couple of studs to anchor them to where they should be within pace of the offense, and the schedule actually lines up about as good as it can for UNC this year. All of which lead to the Tar Heels having a really good shot to get back to bowl eligibility this year. It’s definitely not a lock though, with how the ACC is lining up the best case realistic scenario for UNC is probably about seven wins this year. So let’s look at what they need to do in order to get back to a winning season.

Offense

UNC had an unstable quarterback situation the entire season last year. Chaz Surratt comes into 2018 with the most experience on the roster, and barring injuries there shouldn’t be as much volatility at quarterback this season. Surratt is going to be running an explosive and talented offense, led by junior WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams. Ratliff-Williams is a pre-season All-ACC pick, but North Carolina is going to have a ton of depth at both receiver and running back this year.

        

Running backs Jordan Brown and Michael Carter combined to rush for over 1,100 yards last season. Both are explosive backs who hit the hole hard and fit really well in Fedora’s zone option read offense. Brown is a little better receiver out of the backfield than Carter, and actually had the 2nd most receptions on the team last year behind Ratliff-Williams. Carter is more physical as a rusher. Both are capable of running between the tackles though, as well as finding space on sweeps and other outside run plays.

         

The receiving corps has some players who were role players last year, but who with more opportunities have the ability to be key contributors. Beau Corrales is a player I would really keep an eye on this year. The sophomore from Texas only played in two games last year, but he’s a physical receiver who has really good body control in the air, which makes him a mismatch Fedora can take advantage of. Another big boost is incoming freshman Antoine Greene. Greene doesn’t have track speed necessarily, but his quick burst ability allows him to create separation. He also has the ability to high point the ball, which is unique for a freshman and something that will get him on the field quick at Kenan Memorial this season.

            

Fedora has done a great job recruiting to his offense, and all these players fit his system well. Surratt is going to have a ton of skill players around him with unique skill sets, so that defenses are going to have to account for all six eligible players on offense on every play, which is really hard to gameplan for. The offense should carry this team, and they need to if UNC wants a winning record and a bowl game in 2018.

Defense

The most promising facet of UNC’s defense in 2018 is how much they have returning from 2017. According to SB Nation’s Returning Production Rankings, UNC returns 70% of their production on defense from the previous year. Headlining those returning players are Defensive End Malik Carney, and Linebacker Cole Holcomb.

   

Carney is a physically gifted player who normally lines up on the edge, but still can line up inside. His first step sets him up to make a play on every snap. He has incredible lateral quickness and the motor that you look for in a defensive lineman. Simply put he always seems to be in the right position. Cole Holcomb’s strengths are that he can truly play sideline to sideline. He has quick play recognition and gets off blocks fast, allowing him to fly to the ball carrier and turn a five yard gain into a two yard gain. These two players are the headliners, but with all the experience returning this should be an improved Tar Heel defense.

Schedule

This is where things get really interesting for UNC. Because of how the conference scheduling works they don’t have to play Clemson, Florida State, or Louisville this year, which is a huge break. North Carolina State is the hardest conference game from the Atlantic Division that the Tar Heels will face. Out of conference they play an improved Cal Berkely team, a Central Florida team that ran the table including a Sugar Bowl win against Auburn last year, East Carolina, and Western Carolina. 

In order to get back to bowl eligibility there are some must win games on their schedule. First off they can’t afford to lose to East Carolina and Western Carolina. East Carolina had a bad year last year, but they’re a really good Group of 5 program that can be really dangerous. The Syracuse game is another one that UNC has to win to get to at least six on the year. Everyone remembers Syracuse’s win against Clemson last season, but they still finished 4-8, and will most likely be at the bottom of the Atlantic Division again this year. 

If they win those three they’ll need three more to get bowl eligible. Out of the Cal, UCF, Pitt, UVA, and Duke games they’ll need to win 3 out of 5. The out of conference games are both toss up games, so the division games against Pitt, UVA, and Duke are going to be critical for UNC. All four of those ACC Coastal teams are going to be extremely close in talent, but to get to a bowl game those are games that UNC needs to win. Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State would all be relative upsets for the Tar Heels. UNC can win at least one of those games, but you can’t depend on those to get bowl eligible.

Outlook

The defense is going to be solid enough to keep the team in games, but Carolina is still going to be in a lot of shootouts this year. UNC’s offense is going to be talented enough to put points on the board, but they will have some experience issues with so many new players expected to produce, especially at the receiver position. Chaz Surratt really has the potential to have a special year at quarterback, which is going to be a big part of UNC’s success.

With the way the schedule lines up bowl eligibility is absolutely a possibility, but six to seven wins is probably close to the ceiling for this team. The schedule definitely lines up well for them, but their division is so close in talent top to bottom that the Tar Heels don’t have a whole lot of room for error. They’re still a young team, and Larry Fedora is a great recruiter and great offensive coach, so this will be a good year to build on going forward. If UNC can get bowl eligible then it should be counted as a success for everyone in Chapel Hill.

-       Jake Cowden