MLB Predictions 2018

MLB Predictions 2018

 

 

The 2017 MLB postseason did not disappoint. We saw the reigning champion; Chicago Cubs make another appearance. We saw an old powerhouse in the New York Yankees make their way deep into the playoffs after upsetting arguably the best team in the regular season, the Cleveland Indians. And finally, we saw the Houston Astros bring home the pennant for the first time in franchise history over the Los Angeles Dodgers. It was typical October baseball, and the offseason drama sure didn’t disappoint. Many teams made big free agent moves in preparation for Opening Day on March 29^th and with all that in mind, here are my predictions for the 2018 MLB season.

 

 

AL East

 

The AL East has been arguably one of the best and most competitive divisions over the past few years, and this year isn’t shaping up to be much different. With the run the Yankees had in 2017, it is easy to forget that it was actually the Boston Red Sox who won the division last year.  With one of the best pitching rotations around the league and young stars like Andrew Benintendi, expect the Red Sox to make a similar run at the division title. However, with the massive addition of Giancarlo Stanton in pinstripes as well as filling other holes around the infield, the Yankees are definitely the biggest threat to take that away from Boston. The Blue Jays remain a threat as well, holding on to Josh Donaldson in the offseason, but unfortunately I don’t think he has enough help around him to make the Jays a true contender. That leaves the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays who I think are relatively interchangeable, but will likely finish in that order. The Rays lost Evan Longoria and Logan Morrison and the Orioles have arguably the worst starting rotation in baseball, so I don’t have the highest of hopes for their 2018 seasons.

 

Projected Finish:

 

Yankees: 97-65

Red Sox: 93-69

Blue Jays: 81-81

Orioles: 70-92

Rays: 68-94

 

 

 

 

AL Central

 

Look for the AL Central to be the Cleveland Indians show in 2018. The Twins turned out to be remarkably better than expected last year, clinching an AL Wild Card spot, and they have a shot at having a similar year. The big question for the Twins entering the offseason was pitching, and they actually made some solid moves in the offseason to correct that. They added depth to the starting rotation with Jake Odorizzi and added Addison Reed to the bullpen. Even with a solid offseason, however, they likely won’t even compete with the Indians, who are early favorites to win the pennant. A strong bullpen and one of the best starting rotations in baseball, backed up by the defense and bats of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez should propel the Indians to an easy first place finish in the division. The White Sox are still in a rebuilding slump and are probably at least a couple years away from contending. The AL Central is so wide open after the Indians, though, that the White Sox could give the Twins a run for their money and sneak into a Wild Card spot. Finally, the Tigers and the Royals, who both are starting from scratch in their own rebuilding efforts. The Tigers lost Justin Verlander last year and the Royals lost Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer in the offseason, which will be detrimental on both offense and defense. Things could get real ugly in Detroit and Kansas City this summer.

 

Projected Finish:

 

Indians: 103-59

Twins: 82-80

White Sox: 78-84

Tigers: 60-102

Royals: 58-104

 

 

AL West

 

I don’t believe we’ll see one (or multiple) 100-loss teams come out of the AL West like I’m predicting in the AL Central. However, I don’t think anyone will come close to the reigning champion, Houston Astros. The Astros keep just about everyone on their lineup, including 2017s AL MVP, Jose Altuve, and star shortstop Carlos Correa. Not only does their lineup pose a huge threat, they also bring back Justin Verlander, who they acquired from the Tigers last season, as well as 2015 AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel. The Angels are the only other team in the division that has a chance of making a real playoff run. Re-signing Justin Upton as well as adding Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart to the infield will surely help. Then, of course, there’s the lottery win of young superstar pitcher, Shohei Ohtani. Expect the Angels to have a decent shot at a Wild Card spot. From there, the remainder of the division should be pretty tight, but with little shot at a postseason appearance. The Rangers are going to attempt a six-man starting rotation, which should be interesting with a few veteran arms including Doug Fister and Bartolo Colon. The bats, however, will likely not be enough to win an amount of games to fight for a Wild Card Spot. Finally, we have the Mariners and the Athletics who, while not poised to have breakout seasons, may play better than people expect. The Athletics have veterans in Khris Davis, Matt Olson, and Matt Chapman with a lot of young talent in a farm system that could bring the team into contention in a few years.

 

Projected Finish:

 

Astros: 104-58

Angels: 89-73

Rangers: 75-87

Athletics: 75-87

Mariners: 71-91

 

 

NL East

 

The NL East is the only division on the National League side that I think will be a blow out. The Nationals should take it no contest. However, it appears to be do-or-die time in Washington. Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Gio Gonzalez are all headed for free agency following the 2018 season. Not only that, but the squad has also won the division four out of the last six years, but has failed to make it past the divisional series each time. Nonetheless, the Nats are poised for another shot at it this season, with Harper and company back again, not to mention full seasons out of bullpen stars including Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. Look for them to win the division comfortably. The rest of the division is where things get ugly fast. The Mets, Phillies, and Braves all are in a rebuild currently and should all finish relatively close to one another, with little chance at a Wild Card push. There was a lot of buzz surrounding the Marlins this offseason, as they traded off just about every asset they have, including Stanton to New York, as well as stars Christian Yelich and Dee Gordon. They have one of the poorer offenses in baseball and don’t have much of a bullpen to back it up. Derek Jeter has a lot of work to do in Miami.

 

Projected Finish:

 

Nationals: 101-61

Mets: 78-84

Braves: 75-87

Phillies: 73-89

Marlins: 58-104

 

 

 

 

NL Central

 

The Brewers closed the 17.5 games back gap from 2016 to just 6 games from the Cubs last year, and this year should also be more competitive. Both the Brew Crew and the Cardinals should play competitively with the Cubs this year, with both having decent Wild Card arguments. The Cubs have new faces in the starting rotation this year as well as the bullpen, so they likely won’t dominate as much as recent years. Don’t let that fool you, however, the Cubs are still picked by some to make a deep playoff run in 2018. The Cardinals and Brewers both benefited from the dumpster fire in Miami during the offseason with the Cardinals adding power hitting Marcell Ozuna to their lineup and the Brewers adding outfielder Christian Yelich. The Brewers also added former Kansas City Royals star outfielder, Lorenzo Cain, which will add to their already dangerous lineup. The Reds and the Pirates will not likely make a push for the postseason, as both are in their own rebuilding efforts. The Pirates traded away long-time outfielder Andrew McCutchen to the Giants and will need their younger players to have outstanding seasons to not fall to one of the worst teams in the NL this year.

 

Projected Finish:

 

Cubs: 94-68

Brewers: 88-74

Cardinals: 86-76

Reds: 73-89

Pirates: 67-95

 

 

NL West

 

The 2017 MLB season was an odd one for the NL West. The typical powerhouse, San Francisco Giants, finished last and 40 games behind the division-winning Dodgers. While I do not think the division will shape up much different from a standings perspective, expect the Giants to at least cut that in half in 2018. The division that supplied three postseason teams a year ago will again feature a solid Dodgers team who fell short of a pennant title last October to the Astros. The Dodgers return arguably the best starter in the game in Clayton Kershaw as well as others that led the Dodgers starting staff to a league-leading 3.38 ERA. The Rockies and the Diamondbacks battled it out last year, with the Diamondbacks having the last laugh in an 11-8 Wild Card victory in Phoenix. The Rockies have a very solid pitching staff and the additions of Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw will add depth to the bullpen. The Diamondbacks’ only real losses from last season are outfielder J.D. Martinez and closer Fernando Rodney and with the additions of Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano, the team may be even better than a year ago. The Giants of 2018 are a far better squad than the team who finished with only 64 wins last year. With the additions of Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, the team will likely finish over .500, but I’m afraid it won’t quite be enough for a Wild Card push with how solid teams like the Brewers, Cardinals, Rockies, and Diamondbacks are shaping up to be. With more experience and some 2018 offseason additions, however, the Giants may just be a year away from being a serious threat once again. Finally we have the Padres, who are likely still a couple years away from making any noise. They have one of the best farm systems in baseball and just added star first basemen Eric Hosmer to the squad, but they just don’t have the pieces to compete in 2018.

 

Projected Finish:

 

Dodgers: 100-62

Diamondbacks: 90-72

Rockies: 88-74

Giants: 83-79

Padres: 65-97

 

Finally, the part everyone wants to read about: the playoff picture. With this whole article in mind, this is how I believe the playoffs will shape up in 2018:

 

American League Winners: Yankees, Indians, Astros

American League Wild Card Spots: Red Sox, Angels

ALDS: Yankees vs. Indians, Astros vs. Red Sox

ALCS: Yankees vs. Astros

American League Champion: Yankees

 

National League Winners: Nationals, Cubs, Dodgers

National League Wild Card Spots: Diamondbacks, Brewers

NLDS: Cubs vs. Dodgers, Nationals vs. Brewers

NCLS: Dodgers vs. Nationals

National League Champion: Nationals

 

And finally, my pick to win the 2018 World Series is…..

The Washington Nationals in 6 games

 

 

• By Jacob Caldwell