NFL Draft: 1st Round Quarterbacks

NFL Draft: 1st Round Quarterbacks

In the upcoming NFL draft in April NFL analysts expect to see at least four quarterbacks taken in the first round: Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield. For Mayfield especially the pre-draft process; like the combine, interviews, and pro-day; will be huge to solidify that draft position in the first round. It’s going to be super interesting to see where Lamar Jackson gets drafted, and Mason Rudolph out of Oklahoma State has the size and arm strength to sneak up into the late first round. But Rosen, Darnold, Allen, and Mayfield are widely held as the clear cut top 4 quarterbacks in the 2018 NFL Draft.

This is one of the most interesting QB draft years in recent memory. At the beginning of the season that Rosen, Darnold, and Allen were projected to be the first three picks in the entire draft. While they’ll still all go high, a lot the shine and potential has been replaced with some big questions marks for each player. I think Rosen is the most NFL ready right now out of these four, while Baker Mayfield is the biggest wildcard. Darnold has a chance to be a really special player, but he needs more help than Rosen in terms of getting drafted to the right “fit.” I honestly have no clue how Allen will be in the NFL. He has all the tools of an NFL quarterback, but hasn’t had the coaching that some of the other quarterbacks in the draft have had. He needs to go to an offensive minded system where his development will be the focus of the franchise, and the coaching staff will be assembled to reflect that.

Josh Allen, Wyoming

Allen had a pretty disappointing year in 2017, compared to what was expected by most analysts.. His 2016 sophomore year his numbers were solid. He threw for 28 touchdowns, over 3,200 yards, and 8.6 yards per attempt. Going into his 2017 junior year people were actually excited about watching Wyoming football, which trust me does NOT happen a lot. But Wyoming lost 1,860 yard RB Brian Hill, the school’s top two receivers who combined for over almost 2,000 yards, and their starting Center who was drafted by the Washington Redskins. Left tackle is the most important position in terms of protecting the quarterback, but the Quarterback-Center relationship is the most important on-field in terms of blocking schemes and audibles, replacing that with a first year starter can be a really big adjustment for quarterbacks.

After replacing every major position surrounding Allen his completion percentage stayed at about 56% in 2017. But his yards dropped from over 3,200 to about 1,800. His yards per attempt went down from 8.6 to 6.7. His touchdowns were almost cut in half from 28 to 16, and his passer rating also dropped from 144.9 to 127.8. Even though his 2016 numbers were never outstanding, NFL scouts could see so much raw ability they were dying for the chance to coach him.

One reason quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes keep getting drafted in the first round when they showed nothing in college that would make anyone think they could be a productive NFL quarterback is because NFL coaches are like girls who date terrible guys because they think they can fix them. Every coach wants the huge armed freak athlete who can’t stay on his reads because if that player becomes successful it will show how talented those coaches are.

Which leads us back to Allen. Even though he lost a lot of his surrounding cast and had some injury problems, 2017 was not even close to where most team’s general managers thought Allen would be at. GM’s also know that if they pick a QB in the top 10, then their job security is directly tied to that quarterback’s success, so GM’s are going to need to convince themselves in the pre-draft process that his lack of success at Wyoming wasn’t cause he simply can’t put all his talent together on the field. Allen definitely has the tools, but most players don’t go from being mostly unproductive in college to suddenly balling out in the NFL.

I think he’ll get drafted: Denver Broncos #5

Best fit: Miami Dolphins #11

I was going to have the Jets trade up to get Allen, but in my long and storied career as a sports writer I’ve never projected a trade to fit what would make sense for me, and I’ll be darned if I’m gonna start now, so Allen goes to the Broncos . Denver has drafted a quarterback three years in a row, trading up to draft Paxton Lynch in the 1st round, and Trevor Siemian and Chad Kelly each in the 7th roundy. Siemian has been the starter for the majority of his career in Denver, and largely outplayed his 7th round draft status. The Bronco’s have had an elite defense for the past few years, but since Peyton Manning began aging the offense has been wildly behind in terms of production. While not all of the Bronco’s offensive problems are on Siemian, it's clear there is only so much you can do on offense with him as your number one guy. He can’t push the ball down the field, and isn’t mobile enough in the pocket to go avoid pressure while going through his progressions. The offense can only run quick timing routes, or max protect on play-action if they’re throwing the ball. He limits how deep of a playbook the offensive coordinator can have.

The Broncos drafted Paxton Lynch in the 1st round of the 2016 draft. He still could be something, but he came into the league so raw he was always going to be a project. Two years in it unfortunately doesn’t look like his development is going swimmingly. Chad Kelly is on the roster, and that's about it. Allen is tough enough to play at mile high stadium in the playoffs, which can get pretty miserable. But Allen played his college ball in Laramie, and there is nothing more miserable than Laramie, Wyoming in January so he’ll be good to go for Denver.. Allen’s combination of a prototypical size, rare arm talent, and enough athleticism is more than enough for Elway to take a chance on Allen. Elway was in attendance for Allen’s last game at Wyoming, which was probably the best game of Allen’s last year as a Cowboy.

But if he could somehow get to Miami goodness gracious. I almost picked Baltimore as the spot here, with Allen being the heir apparent to Joe Flacco. But the thought of Allen getting to be coached by Adam Gase is why I picked the Dolphins. Gase is one of the premier quarterback coaches. Gase got 3,800 yards and 18 touchdowns out of Jay Cutler when they were both in Chicago, which is all I need to know. I don’t know what the Dolphins long term plans are with Tannehill, but with a few years of development under Gase, and Allen would have the chance to be a quality starting quarterback.

Sam Darnold, USC

If someone who knew nothing about football talked to a draft expert about Sam Darnold right after USC’s Rose Bowl win against Penn State, they’d probably believe that Darnold was the next Joe Montana. The College Football world was so excited about Darnold leading the Trojans to a 9-0 finish after losing their first three games of the year with Max Browne as the starter, everyone seemed to forget that Darnold actually lost his first start against Utah, and then lost again against Stanford in the PAC 12 Championship game.

I actually thought Darnold was great in 2016, but he wasn’t exactly the greatest player ever to grace the L.A. Coliseum. Darnold’s talent is undeniable, he had a throw against Penn State in the Rose Bowl that literally made my tongue fall out of my mouth. But he was never the sure fire prospect that everyone was making him out to be pre-season. There were some turnover issues that showed a little bit in the 2016 season, that became a lot more evident in 2017.

He still had a great year, and USC won the PAC 12 championship in 2017 for the first time since 2008. But, Darnold’s  2016 to 2017 drop off was an even bigger drop than Allen’s. Darnold actually threw for over 1,000 yards more his 2017 junior year, but his touchdowns decreased to 26 from the 31 that he threw his 2016 sophomore year. The real issue though, is that his total turnovers went up from 18 to 25, while leading the country in fumbles lost at 12. He was also sacked 26 times in 2017, compared to just 6 times the year prior. Sacks are usually automatically attributed to the offensive lineman, but they can also be a sign of quarterbacks holding the ball to long, having a hesitancy to “throw his receivers open.”

Some interceptions, or even sacks, coaching staffs can live with, understanding quarterbacks that try to push the ball downfield are going to have more picks (Andrew Luck throws a ton of interceptions because of this). But the fumbles are a real concern, and his hand size measurements at the NFL combine are going to be really crucial for Darnold. If his hands are at least average size then coaches will believe they can just work on ball security with him. But if he measures with pretty small hands, fumbling might just be part of Darnold’s football makeup, and teams are going to have to decide if his talent is worth the possible fumble/turnover issues.

I think he’ll get drafted : Cleveland Browns #1

Best fit: Los Angeles Chargers #17

A lot of analysts think Darnold is going to be better than Rosen anyway in the long run. In contrast to Rosen, Darnold has been open about being more than willing to play for any team that drafts him. I don’t think he’s ever been to Cleveland in January when he said that, but if he performs well at the combine I think he’s a lock to join the long line of Browns starting Quarterbacks. Fun fact, the last QB to start and win a game for the Browns was Robert Griffin III, which was on Christmas Eve of 2016 against the Chargers.

But if Darnold wound up playing for the Chargers that would make a ton of sense. He’d get a chance to play with and behind Philip Rivers, who is one of the most competitive quarterbacks in the NFL. That would allow Darnold to sit for at least a year, which everyone thinks is the worst thing in the world for some reason, but Aaron Rodgers sat for two years  behind Favre and he seemed to turn out okay. Darnold would also get to hand the ball off the Melvin Gordon and throw to Keenan Allen, which is a hypothetical trio that could dominate the league. With the Chargers moving to LA, and soon into a new stadium in Inglewood, drafting Darnold could help them win over some  Rams fan in their competition for LA relevancy. I know he probably isn’t going there, but Darnold in a Chargers uniform could become the next King of Los Angeles.

Josh Rosen, UCLA

Rosen is by far the most talented pure passer in the draft. When he (as expected) won the UCLA starting QB job as a true freshman he absolutely torched Virginia in the Bruin’s first game. On national television, in his first start, Rosen put on display exactly why everyone in Westwood was so hyped about their incoming QB from Manhattan Beach. More than just completing 80% of his passes for over 350 yards and three touchdowns in that game, it was how he did it that was unbelievable. Whenever Virginia’s pressure would actually hurry Rosen it didn’t seem to affect him. He’d step up in the pocket, go from his first to second to third read, and make the right throw. His throws over the linebackers in the middle of the field had incredible touch, his timing was on point, and he showed that he had the arm strength to make the throws from one hash to the opposite sideline.

He obviously didn’t keep up the 80% completion percentage, but throughout his career he progressed as NFL teams had hoped and continue to improve as a passer. But UCLA’s on field production didn’t match the talent they had. Fair or not, despite Rosen’s numbers the fact is he was the starting quarterback of a team that greatly underperformed while he was in Westwood. Another huge concern for Rosen is that his last two years have been riddled with injuries, more notably the 2016 season which he missed about the second half of the year with a nerve injury in his throwing shoulder.

Injuries aren’t the only concern some NFL teams have regarding Rosen, and GM’s look for a lot more in future NFL quarterbacks than just throwing ability. They want someone who is obsessive about football to the point where it’s almost unhealthy. Rosen hasn’t necessarily shown to be that guy at UCLA. He’s been outspoken about the problems with the NCAA football system, and it’s unfair demands on student athletes. He also installed a kiddie pool in his dorm room so he could get a soak in while playing Call of Duty, which for normal people isn’t weird at all and actually kinda funny. NFL GM’s, however, are not normal people. In a vacuum it seems hard to draw a relation between a dorm hot tub and football. Let us remember, though, that the biggest concern for teams regarding last years #1 overall pick, Myles Garrett, was that he loved learning about Dinosaurs and fossils. Teams feared Garrett’s fascination for paleontology would possibly take away from his time working to better himself as a football player.

The biggest thing though that I think would prevent Rosen from being chosen ahead of the other QB’s is that he’s been vocal about preferring to be a lower draft pick and go to the right team instead of being as high of a pick as possible. He hasn’t listed what would count as a right situation for him or not, but we all know he’s talking about avoiding Cleveland. Cleveland currently has the 1st and 4th picks in the 2018 draft, and they might not want to draft Rosen with the possibility that he’d pull an Eli Manning or a John Elway and refuse to play for them, forcing a draft day trade. Some other QB needy teams at the top of the draft that could be scared away by Rosen possibly holding out are the Jets. I don’t think he’d say no the Giants or the Broncos, and the other teams in the top 10 don’t have QB issues to address that early in the draft.

I think he’ll get drafted: New York Giants #2

Best fit: Arizona Cardinals #15

I almost put the Giants as the best situation as well, and a lot of that consideration was the fact that he’d have the biggest safety net in the NFL also known as Odell Beckham Junior. But they just can’t block to save their lives, or Eli’s for that matter. I think the Giants try to keep Eli for another year and then play Rosen. I don’t know how down Eli is about that situation, but if that's how it plays out then the Giants will have two years to get better protection for Rosen, which will also help their running backs who are pretty good, I really like Wayne Gallman who they drafted last year out of Clemson.

But Arizona would be the place for Rosen. Carson Palmer retired so the job would most likely be his at some point his rookie year. The presence of vets like Patrick Peterson and Larry Fitzgerald would help Rosen in the locker room learn how to be an NFL quarterback off the field. They probably wouldn’t make the playoffs for at least a year, but this is about leadership development more than anything.

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

It’s going to be a lot of fun to see where Baker Mayfield ends up getting drafted. There is such a large discord among GM’s in terms of his NFL comparisons. The high end of those are Russell Wilson and Drew Brees, while he’s also getting compared to Johnny Manziel and Tim Tebow. Some of the Manziel comparisons stem from a disorderly conduct, and evading a police officer charge in the offseason. Mayfield seems to have moved past that, but GM’s will say it’s really hard to picture Peyton Manning ever having any of those types of off-field issues. But Mayfield’s on-field personality is exactly what NFL coaches dream of in a quarterback. He thrives in hostile environments, never losing a true road game while starting for the Sooners. The biggest thing, however, about Baker is he believes he’s the best. Everyone single player in any interview ever will  say that, but for Mayfield it’s true, and he knows it. When he lost the starting job at Texas Tech due to injury he just decided to walk on to Oklahoma. Usually if people lose their starting job they transfer to Syracuse or Georgia State or something, not one of the best programs in the country. A program that returned Trevor Knight at quarterback, a season removed from him leading Sooners to a thrashing of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. But Baker knew he could win the job, and he did. Knight transferred to A&M and Baker became the greatest quarterback in Oklahoma history.

Going into his Senior year in 2017 season he lost his best wide receiver, Dede Westbrook, who won the Biletnikoff award as the nations best receiver in 2016. He also lost two different 1,000 rushers in Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine to the NFL. People expected Mayfield to still be good, but a little bit of drop off was expected. Mayfield was in a similar situation to Josh Allen in Wyoming. But instead of the disappointing season Allen had, Mayfield somehow got better. Like so good he literally re-wrote the record book. His 2016 Junior season was the most efficient in NCAA history. But that record only stood until 2017, when we has even more efficient after losing all of his leading skill positions players.

Below is a list of the top 5 season’s all time for QB passing efficiency.

5. Colt Brennan, Hawaii 2006

4. Robert Griffin, Baylor, 2011

3. Russell Wilson, 2011

2. Baker Mayfield, 2016

1. Baker Mayfield, 2017

That’s pretty incredible for a guy who was a 3 star coming out of high school and lost his starting job at Texas Tech. But literally all he does is win. He plays the game with a pure joy that is just fun to watch. His teammates will go to war for him, and his head coach loves him like a son. Whatever team drafts Mayfield is going to have a lot of fun. The above stat is just one example of how he dominated college, which obviously doesn’t guarantee NFL success, (see Brennan and Griffin.) But if he goes to the right team he definitely has a shot to be really good in the NFL.

I think he’ll get drafted: Arizona Cardinals #15

Best fit: New Orleans Saints #26

I think Mayfield could go earlier to the Jets, or Bengals as well. But I think he ends up at Arizona, which is also the absolute lowest I see him going. With Palmer retiring they need a quarterback bad. Arizona’s in a weird spot because their roster is at the end of a win now mode, but they still have a lot of vets in their prime. So it’d be hard to reload with a rookie QB, and I could see them going after Cousins or Bridgewater. But I think they draft a quarterback as well, and I think that’s Mayfield.

But omg picturing Baker Mayfield running the Saints offense is everything I’ve ever wanted. Think how fun it would be watching Mayfield throwing the ball all over the field around in Sean Peyton’s system. The timeline actually works out with Brees as well, Baker wouldn’t have to play right away and there wouldn’t be an immediate pressure that a lot of first round picks have. The Saints rocked the 2017 draft and are starting to change their identity. The back end of their defense is legit with Marshon Lattimore and Marcus WIlliams. Their newfound rushing identity though is why I think Mayfield would kill it in the Bayou. He’s not going to come in and be expected to be Drew Brees and throw for like 5,000 yards every year. He’d still sling it, and he has the arm strength to take the top off of a defense, but with Ingram and Kamara he’s going to have a lot more space to throw. Which is his biggest concern right now, so if he can have some time behind Brees to work on anticipation throws into tight windows Mayfield can be a star.

- Jake Cowden